This was a collaboration between the GEDA and the GOB aiming to estimate the survival probability of Kentish Plovers in Mallroca using data from 1977. The main question was whether there was a trend in survival probability in the last twenty years.
We used capture-recapture information of 214 adult Kentish Plovers Charadrius alexandrinus, marked between 1977 and 2015 at two breeding areas in Mallorca, Spain, to assess any possible temporal trend in the survival probability. Mean adult survival probability was 0.756 ± 0.05 with no differences between the two areas. The sparseness of the data did not permit robust estimates of yearly survival. However, models with a temporal trend in survival probability were not retained. An age-structured population model including demographic stochasticity suggested a stable population (l = 1.024 ± 0.09). Perturbation analyses indicated that a 10% increase in mean breeding success (from 0.44 to 0.63), by reducing habitat loss or nest predation, would be sufficient to obtain positive population trajectories.