New publication on global changes and distribution shifts!

Marjakangas EL, Bosco L, Versluijs M, Xu Y, Santangeli A, [...] and Lehikoinen A. 2023 Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 120 (23):e2213330120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2213330120.

In a shell: Overlooked barriers such as landscapes' edges, coastlines, and elevation, hinder animal movement and constrain adaptations. This study emphasizes the need to consider these barriers for predicting future changes in animal communities.

From: wikipedia.com

 Abstract: Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shift in response to climate change. Yet, ecological barriers are rarely considered in climate change studies, potentially hindering predictions of biodiversity shifts. We used data from two consecutive European breeding bird atlases to calculate the geographic distance and direction between communities in the 1980s and their compositional best match in the 2010s and modeled their response to barriers. The ecological barriers affected both the distance and direction of bird community composition shifts, with coastlines and elevation having the strongest influence. Our results underscore the relevance of combining ecological barriers and community shift projections for identifying the forces hindering community adjustments under global change. Notably, due to (macro)ecological barriers, communities are not able to track their climatic niches, which may lead to drastic changes, and potential losses, in community compositions in the future.

New Publication on Sea Turtles range expansion!

Santidrián Tomillo, P., Tomás, J., Marcos, A., Panagopoulou,A. and Tavecchia,G. 2022 Enviornmental changes in the Mediterranean Sea could facilitate the western expansion of loggerhead turtles. MEPS DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14149

ABSTRACT: Climate change may affect life on Earth in multiple ways. Whereas some populations may encounter detrimental conditions that cause extirpations, those occupying cooler thermal limits of a range may benefit by expanding. For sea turtles, egg maturation in the female oviduct and nest incubation are temperature-dependent and vulnerable to climate change. 

Mediterranean loggerhead turtles Caretta caretta nest in the eastern basin although sporadic nesting occurs on the western side. To assess the likelihood of a climate-related expansion, we compared historical air and sea surface (SST) temperatures between locations near established eastern nesting areas and western areas where sporadic nesting is increasing (Palinuro, Italy) or just started (Balearic Islands, Spain). Our results suggest that summer air and water temperatures in western sites were suitable for nesting over the last 40-50 yr, at least in July-August, having (1) SSTs above suboptimal threshold temperature (22°C) and (2) similar air temperatures to those of Greece, but among the lowest in the Mediterranean. There was a decreasing east-to-west gradient in SST. However, SSTs were similar around beaches of Zakynthos (Greece), Palinuro and Ibiza (Balearic Islands), where SST was above 22°C for at least 60 d, potentially allowing turtles to lay multiple clutches. A warming trend was detected in air temperature and SST since the 1970s-1980s. Although conditions in the western Mediterranean currently seem suitable for nesting, lower air temperatures in May-June and higher precipitation in September could shrink the nesting window. If warming continues, conditions in the western basin could progressively become more favorable for nesting. 

New Publication (and Cover !) on Cinereous Vulture distribution

García‐Barón I, Cortés‐Avizanda A, Verburg PH, et al. 2018 How to fit the distribution of apex scavengers into land‐abandonment scenarios? The Cinereous vulture in the Mediterranean biome. Divers Distrib. 2018;24:1018–1031. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12743

Abstract: Aim: Farmland abandonment or “ecological rewilding” shapes species distribution and ecological process ultimately affecting the biodiversity and functionality of ecosystems. Land abandonment predictions based on alternative future socioeconomic scenarios allow foretell the future of biota in Europe. From here, we predict how these forecasts may affect large‐scale distribution of the Cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus), an apex scavenger closely linked to Mediterranean agro‐grazing systems. 

Location: Iberian Peninsula.

Methods: Firstly, we modelled nest‐site and foraging habitat selection in relation to variables quantifying physiography, trophic resources and human disturbance. Secondly, we evaluate to what extent land abandonment may affect the life traits of the species and finally we determined how potential future distribution of the species would vary according to asymmetric socioeconomic land‐abandonment predictions for year 2040.

Results: Cinereous vultures selected breeding areas with steep slopes and low human presence whereas foraging areas are characterized by high abundance of European rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and wild ungulates. Liberalization of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) could potentially transform positively 66% of the current nesting habitat, favouring the recovery of mature forest. Contrarily, land abandonment would negatively affect the 63% of the current foraging habitat reducing the availability of preferred food resources (wild European rabbit). On the other hand, the maintenance of the CAP would determine lower frequencies (24%–22%) of nesting and foraging habitat change.

Main conclusions: Land abandonment may result into opposite effects on the focal species because of the increase in nesting habitats and wild ungulates populations and, on the other hand, lower availability of open areas with poorer densities of European rabbits. Land‐abandonment models’ scenarios are still coarse‐grained; the apparition of new human uses in natural areas may take place at small‐sized and medium‐sized scales, ultimately adding complexity to the prediction on the future of biota and ecosystems.