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Monday, 3 February 2020
New Publication on Red Palm Weevil!
Sanz-Aguilar, A., Cortés, I., Gascón, I., Martínez, O., Ginard, S., Tavecchia, G., 2020.Modelling pest dynamics under uncertainty in pest detection: the case of the red palm weevil. Biological Invasions. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-020-02208-6
Abstract. A common complication in invasive pest management is that the infectious
state of the host can be wrongly assessed, leading to biases in the
estimation of the prevalence of the pest and on the efficacy of
mitigation actions. We designed a multievent model that accommodates
uncertainty on host state to investigate the dynamics of the infestation
of Phoenix canariensis by the invasive Rhynchophorus ferrugineus. Since 2011, the council of Palma city (Mallorca Island, Spain) applied
preventive, curative and destructive treatments to public Phoenix
palms. A year later awareness campaigns focused on every palm owner in
an attempt to control the plague. We estimated the probability of
infestation and assessed the efficiency of mitigation measures,
awareness campaigns and palm-dependent covariates. Our results show that
infestation probabilities were higher for palms infested in the
previous year than for healthy palms and it decreased substantially over
time as a results of mitigation measures and awareness campaigns. Palms
surrounded by treated palms had a lower probability of being infested
than palms surrounded by untreated palms, i.e. private palms before
awareness campaigns implementation. Our results highlight the key role
of awareness campaigns and public participation for invasive species
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